Bubbles for annual national emissions for the period 1850–2011 show CO₂ from fossil fuel and cement emissions. Data source: World Resources Institute, CAIT 2.0. 2014. Climate Analysis Indicators Tool.
Emissions from deforestion and other land use change are not shown in the country bubbles but are included at the global level in the cumulative total in the budget view. Data source: CDIAC, Carbon Flux to the Atmosphere from Land-Use Changes 1850–2005. The visualisation assumes global land use emissions remain unchanged between 2005 and 2011.
The global carbon budget is set to 2900 GT CO₂. This figure provides an approximately 66% chance of keeping global temperatures below 2 degrees Celsius according to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Synthesis Report. The running total for global cumulative emissions is the sum of the CAIT and CDIAC data listed above.
Future CO₂ emissions scenarios reflect the IPCC’s RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios though the CO₂ budget is fixed at 2900 GT. In reality this budget would be increased or decreased somewhat depending on efforts made to reduce other greenhouse gases. Rapid action on these other gases could increase the CO₂ budget to around 3150, sufficient to stop the budget being exceeded in the transformational change scenario. Data source: Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, and Department of Physics, University of Oxford, based on the four IPCC relative concentration pathways.